WMO forecasts December El Niño peak as global heat and rainfall risks shift
The latest seasonal outlook points to further Pacific warming and persistence into February 2027.
El Niño is expected to strengthen towards a December peak, increasing the likelihood of above-average temperatures across much of the world and changing rainfall patterns, the World Meteorological Organization says in its latest seasonal outlook.
The October 8 update, in focus in October 9 coverage, puts the probability of the event persisting through February 2027 at nearly 100%. WMO says the forecast draws on agreement across 13 national and international centres.
The risks differ by region. Shifting rainfall can increase drought exposure in some places and flood risk in others, while unusual ocean warmth affects ecosystems and economic activity. A global outlook is therefore a planning signal rather than a prediction of identical conditions everywhere.
For India, local rainfall and temperature assessments remain essential. The El Niño forecast should not be treated as a district-level warning or a guarantee about a particular day's weather. Seasonal preparedness and short-term forecasts answer different questions.